Mark Shuttleworth: Our Goal Is 200 Million Ubuntu Users In 4 Years

By on May 9th, 2011     

Delivering the keynote at the Ubuntu Developer Summit at Budapest, Hungary, Canonical Founder, Mark Shuttleworth, has announced that the goal of Canonical is 200 million Ubuntu users in four years.

Canonical has not officially not provide any data on how many Ubuntu users are there currently - in fact it, is quite difficult to track it. However, according to Prakash Advani, Partner Manager - Central Asia at Canonical, there are an estimated 12 million Ubuntu users.

Our goal is 200 million users of Ubuntu in 4 years.

Going from 12 million to 200 million in a span of four years means that Ubuntu cannot be content with just being the most popular Linux distribution. Canonical have to get Ubuntu out there and noticed by the majority of the people who uses Mac and Windows and make them switch side.

The idea of freedom and open-source is clearly not enough to make users switch over to Linux from Windows and Mac. Polished and useful software that takes care of user experience is what will draw users. That will mean development with users in mind - something that Canonical has been doing with Ubuntu. This is what Shuttleworth said;

We’re not playing a game for developers hearts and minds – we’re playing a game for the worlds hearts and minds. And to achieve that we’re going to have to play by a new set of rules.

In fact, unlike other Linux distributions, Canonical did a lot of design testing and user experience testing during the development of Ubuntu 11.04. If Ubuntu is to achieve the goal of 200 million users, such testing will become more and more important.

I think we’ve set a new bar for disciplined design in free software. For actually going through a vigorous design process, testing work against users actual experience of that, testing our assumptions, iterating based on that testing, and ultimately shooting for the stars.

I think that 200 million Ubuntu users in four years is certainly achievable - although it will require a lot of hard work. However, another fiasco like the one with Ubuntu 11.04 will make 200 million users a distant dream. Canonical have to make sure that they do not repeat what happened with the transition to Unity when they finally make the switch to Wayland.

Do you think that 200 million Ubuntu users in four years in achievable?

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  • http://twitter.com/statspotting StatSpotting.com

    That is a very very high target. Looking at Windows 7 statistics – http://
    statspotting.com/?p=574

  • Jim

    What fiasco? Care to contextualize?

    • http://digitizor.com/ Ricky Laishram

      Unity. By releasing it before it is actually ready, it has resulted in a a lot of long time users moving to other distros and derivatives like Kubuntu, Xubuntu etc.

      • ReconditeDave

        Precisely.

        What is the biggest problem with Linux? is it apps? is it price? is it availability? No, in my opinion it is hardware support. There is nothing more frustrating than installing Linux only to find that while many of your broadcomm cards are supported, that particular revision is not, or that the video is flaky (I am unable to read my login screen because the ATI drivers are crap, so I type my password in blind and I am good to go).

        What does Ubuntu do? They release a new version that BREAKS WHAT ALREADY WORKED! (enable your Compiz Desktop Cube if you don’t believe me).

        • Anonymous

          I have more trouble with windows hardware support now than linux. Ubuntu 11.04 is a distribution that you should either go with the default and don’t tinker, or go elsewhere. You should refrain from running compiz config and tweaking. The cube is not useful anyway – its something you show your windows friends and then never touch again.

      • Phil P

        I agree Ricky, I was sold on Ubuntu 10.04 and 10.10. I couldn’t believe how stable it was and was promoting it to all my friends. Now, I’m distro-hopping just to find a desktop I can live with. This GNOME silliness has forced me to look elsewhere for a solid, usable linux desktop.

  • Phil

    As sad as it is they’ll need to get iTunes running on Ubuntu to reach these numbers.

    • Pugh 3

      I don’t agree Phil, Banshee, Amarok and even Rhythmbox are great alternatives to iTunes and you can buy music online through these players.

      • Anonymous

        Doesn’t matter how good those might be – to most people all that matters is that they are not itunes. Clementine is my favorite at the moment, but a little high on the CPU usage.

  • http://profiles.google.com/fred.warren Fred Warren

    It is not just the switch to Wayland. Next up is the switch to Unity 2D as the default in 11.11 There is a lot of beta quality interface issues for the next year. I think the thing that Ubuntu needs to do to get to that number in that timeframe is one thing they will not do. Advertising. One SuperBowl ad could make it so the average Windows user will have heard of Ubuntu.

  • http://vimrc-dissection.blogspot.com/ Dummy00001

    200M users without high-profile OEM deals is impossible. And I do not see how they can do that – against the will of MS. And they can’t become Apple in just 4 years.

    Problem is that developed world has money to pay for MS and Apple OSs. Rest of the world is happy using the pirated software.

    In a way, IMO, the worst enemy of Ubuntu is the Windows piracy.

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  • http://profiles.google.com/sethgali Seth Galitzer

    First all the distros were trying to copy Windows UI. Now Ubuntu is trying to copy the MacOS UI. Unity is beta-quality (or worse) software, for Canonical to shove it down users’ throats is ridiculous. How about Ubuntu, and other distros for that matter, stop trying to copy other OS UIs and instead try to truly innovate? Gnome-shell is a step in the right direction, but distros need to start supporting gnome3. Me, I just miss my old fvwm.

    • Pugh

      Seth, don’t forget that the ‘in-between’ releases are aimed at polishing Ubuntu for the Long-Term Support releases which are supported for 3 years. Most big clients will be using the LTS releases rather than the ‘in-between’ ones, which means the little guys like us get to see the polishing process with all of its ups and downs.

      I don’t like Unity, but for now I am still using Ubuntu in Classic mode cos it is a good Linux implementation backed by deb packages manager which is still the best out there by a long way.

      I think Ubuntu have to do something to set themsleves apart and Unity is their attempt to do that. Although I would also prefer they used Gnome 3.

      The pundits seem to be right in the fact that Linux is going the same way as Unix did, fracturing into a whole heap of tiny alternatives which will fail to gain market share because of the lack of a united core implemtation.

      My prediction is RedHat SUSE, Mandriva and Ubuntu will remain as the big players in the commercial world, whil Debian will stay as a backbone for many distros and the others will always be a lot smaller.

  • Anonymous

    I can see this happpening, maybe not in 4 years, but due to the massive population explosion the planet is currently undergoing 200million people will be a small number soon. The main issue with linux is it is still viewed as quirky and not as easy to use as windows or macos. I use linux for servers because it is very good at doing that kind of work. However anything graphical seems just not work as well in linux as it does in macos or windows. Not to mention 90% of the software out there is for windows and you he to hunt for linux equivilents which are usually not nearly as polished as thier counterparts. This is in large part due to the failings of the X window system.

    • Anonymous

      That’s not true. I use both Windows 7 and Ubuntu 11.04 every day, and I think Ubuntu is easier to use. Windows’ desktop is confusing and messy. Ubuntu’s desktop is clean and simple.

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  • Kaddy080

    WoW I think Mark is going to have Egg on his Face after 4 years. That is an impossible Goal For Canonical Unless ofcoarse…. let’s be realistic…. Game Developers ported Games to Linux/Ubuntu along with other Apps that Alot of people cannot live without such as PhotoShop etc.

    Mark… Sorry mate… You are Dreaming

  • Joe

    As great as Ubuntu is (I love using it) – they seriously need a real graphic art and marketing department … the drab orange and aubergine really don’t cut it … and can you imagine how well “Windows 8 – Zany Zebra” would fly in the corporate world? … please please please work on your image Ubuntu, you’re great in so many other ways, just catch up on this one

    • Anonymous

      I too don’t like the default theme but its better than brown. I finally gave in and just accept it and try to learn to appreciate its unique look.

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  • Syncdram

    LOL, giving him the benefit of the doubt and he gets 200 million new ubuntu users, now we all know they will be coming from windows and mac right? ALL those 200 million users will find out FAST of the none equal to software they currently use and will also find out a good portion of there printers don’t work, and most will find out there tomtom and garmin software won’t work, no hallmark card creator equivalents the list goes on and on and on. Lets get real, he will loose 200 million in 4 years over this unity nonsense. His money and time would have been better spent in software development and drivers.

  • The_fixer_andy

    This is a noble goal, but unlikely to be achieved. I say that as an Ubuntu user. The entire industry has to raise their standards regarding reliability. It seems that every time my 10.04 system is updated, something breaks. Usually I have to recompile the Nvidia driver (the one supplied by Ubuntu doesn’t work – and this is current hardware we’re talking about) when there is a new kernel installed. Last update, my Compiz Fusion desktop effects broke. The gweather applet dies after running a certain amount of time. Some of the applications – “mature” ones – are pretty shaky in that they seem to be on the verge of crashing (if they don’t crash). This is a decent computer with plenty of speed and memory here. If this were the automotive industry there would be massive recalls involved. How come I am forced to become a shade-tree mechanic every time the thing gets updated? I think before they look at 200 million *very unhappy* users, they need to get the basics right. Ubuntu does not have the marketing muscle of Microsoft, and they need to make people happy rather than expect to force things down the computing public’s throat.
    –Andy

    • Anonymous

      That’s funny. I use nVidia and nothing has ever gotten broken. I have now upgraded 10.04 -> 10.10 -> 11.04 without reinstalls.

    • Anonymous

      At one point a couple years ago, ATI dropped support for their proprietary driver for my ATI chipset under windows 7 and (whatever version ) of Xorg Ubuntu was using at the time. Ubuntu got blamed for breaking the ATI graphics. The end result was I could not run windows 7 on my machine (other than 640×480 resolution), but was able to run Ubuntu, through the open source driver. It was not 100% on things like transparency but worked pretty well. So windows 7 was the one that was broken. Now, a few releases later, the open source ATI driver has matured and works perfectly.

  • Anonymous

    The only users for Linux will be people who don’t use a lot of popular software that is only available on mac and windows EG. Steam/most games , Adobe CS products, MS Office, Winamp (surprised there’s still no linux version) itunes (expectedly no linux version) Plus driver issues for hardware is still a huge problem for Linux

    • Anonymous

      I agree, Mesh24. It’s the apps that make the difference. Shuttleworth has little control over that. I’d be using Linux everywhere right now if the apps I require were available. The only way for widespread Linux to happen is to have a Linux desktop standard. A standard would enable third party vendors to create apps with the assurance that they will run on all distro’s. Unfortunately, the idea of a desktop standard cuts across the grain of the Linux community. It ain’t gonna happen. I hope I’m wrong but Shuttleworth might as wish big while he’s wishing.

    • Anonymous

      Audacious is the substitute for WinAmp. I find Audacious just as good.

    • Anonymous

      Winamp is tied very tightly to windows, through ActiveX and IE. No way in hell they could port it. I spent the first year on linux looking for a winamp 5.x clone, but ended up discovering better options. Sorry, drivers are not a problem, any more than windows.

      • Mylestwine

        OK, maybe Winamp was a bad example. But when i said drivers I didn’t just mean printers/scanners, I keep hearing about problems with ATI/Nvidia drivers on linux. As far as I know print/scan drivers on vista/win7 are very good by now.

    • Col. Panek

      Well, that’s me and 10 million other people (so far). No Office ribbon for me, and Winamp is bloaty. For a hobby graphic artist, Gimp is great. And the last install I did (new laptop, Ubuntu Unity) everything worked…video, audio, wireless, camera, readers, printer/scanner, special keys.

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  • Anonymous

    I can’t believe he has an goal like that. You need to have it in stores but I would always buy the windows machine and dual boot with ubuntu. You can’t get your money back if you uninstall the windows, so might as well keep it. But, i would never buy an off the shelf PC anyway.

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  • Anony Mouse

    That 12M number of users is from several years ago, I heard it at least as far back as May 2009. Unless the rate of growth slowed substantially since then Ubuntu should have somewhat more than 30M users by now.

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  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Matt-Kukowski/100001515201862 Matt Kukowski

     Who cares how many people use Ubuntu.  I mean the more the merrier, of course.  But, to Mark he needs to make Ubuntu Profit stable and just call it a victory.

    As far as Unity.  I like it.  It is simple, too the point.  But, it does need polishing, this is a given.  The themes that come stock are simply gorgeous.  The look and feel of Ubuntu modern from 2-3 years ago is astonishing.  Free software and Ubuntu ( even the server editions) are a grand achievement that for people that complain are just so negative and just full of crap it blows my mind.

    Personally… I like have MS, Apple and now Ubuntu as choices.  The more choices the more competition.

    Same with the Browser situation… I love having 5 browsers to choose from ( if not more ) but I stick with what I like which is Chrome.

    Also, the VIRUS problem that Microsoft is constantly ‘dealing’ with, is going to continue to byte them in their asses, until they fundamentally fix their kernel and permission problems.  Right now, MS is resorting to blaming the developer community for all the Viruses!  Go Google it!

    Ubuntu is Virus free and will continue to be so, even when it becomes major and popular.

    Also, as the economy melts down further… I think commodity software is only going to grow in popularity, on the desktop.

    What needs to happen now… is that Ubuntu needs to stick with what it has, and stop with all the sudden design changes… first it was the color scheme, then it was whether to use Gnome Shell, then the movement of the close, max, min buttons shifted to the left side… now it is Unity.

    They need to stick with Unity, polish it up and be done with the fundamental design.  I think Ubuntu has arrived and is so beautiful and amazing … how fast they develop and produce blows my mind.  Think Music, Ubuntu One, Design, stability, cloud services, software center and creating conventions to get the train going… truly amazing.

    Just remember what Gates said over a decade ago, that Open/Free Software will never amount to anything.  Look at it now… truly jaw dropping.

    Ubuntu only gets better and better.. . while MS struggles to keep it’s corporate and users from revolting to Apple or Ubuntu.  Windows will only become more bloated, more loaded down, more plagued with their Virus problems.  Patch Tuesday?  Are you kidding me? Oh and covert patching?  Not so good a thing.

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  • Scrinson3

    It is all about availability, publicity and ease of installation, stick 200 million preconfigured installation cd/dvd’s in every major national newspaper and magazines and Bobs ya uncle.
               People are really bored with Windows and Macs Osx has got steadily slower since Tiger.
    Linux is is interesting and fun to mess around with but it needs a few more drivers. :)

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Mark Shuttleworth: Our Goal Is 200 Million Ubuntu Users In 4 Years was originally published on Digitizor.com on May 9, 2011 - 6:29 pm (Indian Standard Time)